Wednesday, April 20, 2011

November Shoe-In

As if it was not clear before the Christchurch earthquakes, it's plain as day now: Labour has no hope of winning the 2011 Election.
It's been plagued by internal irritations and leadership fights, at the same time as the country has faced one of its biggest hurdles. That National was at the helm when Chch was blitzed was a godsend for NZ, as I doubt Labour was in any sort of condition to tackle such a catastrophe.
National was blooded by the global economic slump. To be in power when that arrived was like being dealt the deathcard for any party, yet National did as good a job as could be expected. None of us honestly hoped for a miracle, we just wanted to survive a situation that was not of our making. Then, when not out of the tunnel but surely seeing the light at its end, the earthquakes came...and National responded the way a govt should.
Ok, months down the track, slower-than-desired solutions are now causing local dissatisfaction in Chch and that's to be expected, given the magnitude of the problems and the small size of our country and resources. Nothing gets fixed overnight, but it feels to me that this govt has enough gaffer tape to at least hold it all together.
I don't believe Labour in its current form would've even been capable of opening a box of Band-Aids by now! I'm also sure that deep down inside, Labour knows this - perhaps that's why it seems more intent on nipping at the govt's heels, rather than showing nationalistic solidarity and supporting it's earthquake remedies.
Backing the govt's efforts would show a maturity and political savvy that may pay dividends down the track, but Labour's current shareprice has crashed. The latest 3News poll shows 78% of voters believe Mr Goff can not win this election. Even among Labour voters, only 35% think he can.
And the polls show National could govern alone - it's on 54%, Labour 34%, the Greens 6%, NZ First 2.7%, while the Maori Party (1.4%) and Act (1.1%) barely feature. Do the maths...
In times of crisis, most people stick with the devil they know: right now, no-one knows if Labour even knows what it's doing! I'm no political pundit, but it doesn't take a brain surgeon to pick the result of November 26.


Timespanner said...

Historically, Labour had very little chance of winning this election even back in early 2009. National usually doesn't do one-term governments. If Labour gets their act together, dusts themselves off, pressure-cleans thoroughly and perhaps slaps an extra coat or two of paint on the whole deal, they may have a bit more chance in 2014, but realistically it won't be until 2017 before they have a real opportunity to reassume power. Governments tend to decay by the third term in this country, so it's a case of which party makes the most mistakes, and which one has the ability to capitalise on them.

Mad Bush Farm said...

Things always go to pattern. We get the three terms - people vote with their feet then start complaining when the policies end up as being something they don't like. Case and point National policies 1990's era now in repetition mode with Uncle Roger Douglas in the background. History will repeat itself. National wins - Labour loses -Goff's position straight after said election will become a case of removal by leadership challenge.

Anonymous said...

The country is in so much trouble right now, that we need ALL parties working TOGETHER to get us through. The recession and the EQ impact should be regarded in the same context as WWII, and tackled as such: everyone working together for the greater good.
Dreams are free...